Politics And Current Events

[Shyster]

[Pavel Bure]

Are we to trust a site that bases it results on crypto gambling?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymar ... ng%20place.

[count2infinity]

How many debates are we going to get with Biden and Trump? I'd put the over under at 1.5, and I'd probably take the under.

[NTP66]

I think there's a near zero chance that Pissbaby agrees to a single debate.

[nocera]

That poll doesn't say what I want it to say so I'll just go on thinking polls are useless and it's too early to poll anyway. If it said the opposite, I would also just go on thinking that polls are useless and it's too early to poll anyway.

[Shyster]

Are we to trust a site that bases it results on crypto gambling?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymar ... ng%20place.

The reported poll is from Harvard-Harris. InteractivePolls is not part of Polymarket. The reported poll was not performed by Polymarket or based on Polymarket. If you'd clicked on the "view more" on InteractivePolls' profile in your effort to find something to discredit the poll (which, again, was not done by either InteractivePolls or Polymarket), you would have read that InteractivePolls offers advertising in the form of pinned links in its profile. The link to Polymarket is an ad.

[Pavel Bure]

That poll doesn't say what I want it to say so I'll just go on thinking polls are useless and it's too early to poll anyway. If it said the opposite, I would also just go on thinking that polls are useless and it's too early to poll anyway.

Yeah there was some poll about a month ago that said a Dem was ahead of Cruz in Texas. Reddit was circlejerking over it but quickly discount polls that show Trump ahead. It doesn’t seem that polls are very reliable regardless of who does them.

[Pavel Bure]

Are we to trust a site that bases it results on crypto gambling?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymar ... ng%20place.

The reported poll is from Harvard-Harris. InteractivePolls is not part of Polymarket. The reported poll was not performed by Polymarket or based on Polymarket. If you'd clicked on the "view more" on InteractivePolls' profile in your effort to find something to discredit the poll (which, again, was not done by either InteractivePolls or Polymarket), you would have read that InteractivePolls offers advertising in the form of pinned links in its profile. The link to Polymarket is an ad.

Went to the site and clicked the link they have in their bio.

[CBear3]

The Harvard-Harris polls are weird, because who TF are the 15% voting for Kennedy? They don't show up in the battleground polls nearly that high.
Also, when you swap Haley for Trump, Biden leads in polls...again making this more about Trump's weird pull than Biden's performance I think. When you swap Harris for Biden you get similar results, which pretty much means they're your generic Dems which is all they've ever really been.
And Newsom is f'ed and can likely kiss a federal election goodbye.

I think the key is the farther we've gotten away from the Trump presidency the more "it wasn't that bad" it becomes. People forget or downplay what happened. For all the "evils" of capitalism, being beholden to the dollar keeps the country on a similar trajectory regardless.

I'll have to dive into the Congressional polling to see where things are. I wonder how many states have abortion access on the November ballot alongside a Congressional race.

[Troy Loney]

I’m sure Biden is losing to Trump in polls right now

[Shyster]

Went to the site and clicked the link they have in their bio.

While either not noticing or ignoring that both posts list the pollster in the first line (Harvard-Harris and Emerson/The Hill) and then claiming that the results come from "a site that bases it results on crypto gambling."

"Hey, I only failed reading comprehension twice instead of three times!"

Take the L.

[Beveridge]

I mean, Biden is a poor choice, but how anyone can want Trump over him or mostly anyone is dumbfounding.

[Troy Loney]

The Harvard-Harris polls are weird, because who TF are the 15% voting for Kennedy? They don't show up in the battleground polls nearly that high.
Also, when you swap Haley for Trump, Biden leads in polls...again making this more about Trump's weird pull than Biden's performance I think. When you swap Harris for Biden you get similar results, which pretty much means they're your generic Dems which is all they've ever really been.
And Newsom is f'ed and can likely kiss a federal election goodbye.

I think the key is the farther we've gotten away from the Trump presidency the more "it wasn't that bad" it becomes. People forget or downplay what happened. For all the "evils" of capitalism, being beholden to the dollar keeps the country on a similar trajectory regardless.

I'll have to dive into the Congressional polling to see where things are. I wonder how many states have abortion access on the November ballot alongside a Congressional race.

I think Biden's major liabilities is the ongoing support for Israel and being old. The Israel stuff is pissing off his left flank, but I think that's just posturing for most of those people. I know it's real for Arab-Americans, but I think in the next 7 months, there will be some status quo achieved (or at least perceived) in Gaza, and Trump will say a lot of really racist things. So the folks citing the Gaza war as their primary issue were not voting Democrat (third-party left voters).

I think the standard position for most normal Americans is that Biden is too old. He is too old, they're right. So that's just going to come down to whether Trump and conservatives are able to tack back to normalcy, or continue going down strange paths (like banning making IVF impossible, book banning, etc).

[Shyster]

The Harvard-Harris polls are weird, because who TF are the 15% voting for Kennedy? They don't show up in the battleground polls nearly that high.

Other polls show similar numbers.



I suspect that Kennedy is getting a lot of the "none of the above" sentiment in these polls.

[MWB]

How many debates are we going to get with Biden and Trump? I'd put the over under at 1.5, and I'd probably take the under.

I’d put it at 0.5 and take the under.

[nocera]

The Harvard-Harris polls are weird, because who TF are the 15% voting for Kennedy? They don't show up in the battleground polls nearly that high.

Other polls show similar numbers.

I suspect that Kennedy is getting a lot of the "none of the above" sentiment in these polls.

This poll says what I want it to say therefore polls are useless and it's too early to poll anyway.

[King Colby]

How many debates are we going to get with Biden and Trump? I'd put the over under at 1.5, and I'd probably take the under.

I’d put it at 0.5 and take the under.

Let's hope for the sake of humanity that this is indeed the case

[Shyster]

Like in this one "someone else" gets 19%.

[King Colby]

"Someone else" should get 100%

[nocera]

Swift fans? We polling Swifties now?

[dodint]

I'm not surprised people that have the time and desire to sit and talk to a pollster favor Trump.

[NTP66]

[Pavel Bure]

Went to the site and clicked the link they have in their bio.

While either not noticing or ignoring that both posts list the pollster in the first line (Harvard-Harris and Emerson/The Hill) and then claiming that the results come from "a site that bases it results on crypto gambling."

"Hey, I only failed reading comprehension twice instead of three times!"

Take the L.

Of course. You’re widely know for posting credible content like the Babylon Bee or Libs of TikTok.

[genoscoif]

I'm not surprised people that have the time and desire to sit and talk to a pollster favor Trump.

Trump peeps most likely pray to be picked for these polls for...reasons...and are on a 3 day high after participating. Having said that, never Trumpers probably experience the same high when given the opportunity to talk about how much they hate Trump.

I think polling now is kinda broken. People taking the time to complete these polls aren't really a cross-section of everyone, they are 'engaged and passionate' (to be nice) and therefore determined to have their voice heard...or whatever. There's always been people like that, but it seems like there are way more today than any other time I remember.

It's also weird because I think people in general feel 'pressured' to be engaged, on both sides and the middle, but I still feel like a ton of people just aren't. And those people would almost definitely NOT wish to take part in political polling. So the results are skewed toward those 'all in' peeps more now than ever before. The 'meh' peeps of the past may have been more likely to participate, but I feel are way more likely to just say 'Nah, I'm good. Good luck, though'.

I dunno. It's weird.

[Troy Loney]

I'm not surprised people that have the time and desire to sit and talk to a pollster favor Trump.

Trump peeps most likely pray to be picked for these polls for...reasons...and are on a 3 day high after participating. Having said that, never Trumpers probably experience the same high when given the opportunity to talk about how much they hate Trump.

I think polling now is kinda broken. People taking the time to complete these polls aren't really a cross-section of everyone, they are 'engaged and passionate' (to be nice) and therefore determined to have their voice heard...or whatever. There's always been people like that, but it seems like there are way more today than any other time I remember.

It's also weird because I think people in general feel 'pressured' to be engaged, on both sides and the middle, but I still feel like a ton of people just aren't. And those people would almost definitely NOT wish to take part in political polling. So the results are skewed toward those 'all in' peeps more now than ever before. The 'meh' peeps of the past may have been more likely to participate, but I feel are way more likely to just say 'Nah, I'm good. Good luck, though'.

I dunno. It's weird.

This is also where my stream of conscious goes when I think about polling.

I think response bias is extremely important right now, and I think they need to round that better with the “least worst option” / hate both candidates crowd.

Trump won that in 2016, Biden in ‘20. Trump sickos and resistance libs are both probably equally engaged, but not the most important demos. The hate both candidates will decide the election and they are not really going to be captured in polls right now.