GDT #75: Pens @ Devils

Post by **Morkle** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:15 am

I'm not mad at Jarry for being inconsistent at all? My premise is that Jarry is wasted here, if this team isn't a playoff caliber team, and there may be value elsewhere in return to move him?

I only mentioned Samsonov, because Dubas seems to stick to guys he likes, no bearing past that.

Post by **Trip McNeely** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:21 am

I don’t think the extra cap space is all that helpful with trading Jarry. There’s a good chance you would just overpay for someone that isn’t worth the contract ala Ryan Graves. You need real return and considering the pearl just dropped in regards to the Roy deal, there isn’t much coming back to us. So I’d rather just keep him next year and THEN if blomquist is the real deal, you move him

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:25 am

I do get this, I'm not as dumb as I look...I get the mindset. I just don't agree with it and I don't think the trade market is such that we'd get what we want.

I guess maybe you could use the Kuemper trade as a model? I don't recall what his contract was. But he netted a 1 and a young third pair d-man. I wouldn't make that trade.

Post by **Morkle** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:26 am

I'm fine with that too. I don't know if I've ever got the sense that Sullivan has liked Jarry like he liked Murray, who he'd trot out repeatedly, no matter what.

My scenario is only consider moving him if there's a team willing to spend on value. I'm not saying the Pens should dump his ass for free.

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:28 am

Oh certainly not, I don't think anyone thinks that you just want to flush him. I just don't think the structure (so to speak) of goalie trades is gonna do us any favors. You need to make two deals here probably. You get a 1 and a 3 for Jarry, then take that. 1 and 3 and trade it for the forward you want...

Post by **nocera** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:28 am

This is all under the assumption that the Pens are not a playoff caliber team. Didn't you hear the news? After last night it looks like playoffs are back on the menu, boys.

Post by **JC2** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:39 am

What's the guess at Ned's next contract?

$1.8-2.5 depending on term? I'd probably keep him at that price with longer term if possible. If someone gives him the chance to start, though, he's probably gone.

Post by **Morkle** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:43 am

I don't think Ned gets a starter share anywhere, tbh. I think if you tell him it's closer to a 50/50 split, which I think he's earned, he's good with that, I'd have to imagine.

Post by **JC2** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:14 am

I don't think he gets a starter job either. That's the only reason I see him not staying if the Pens are willing to match his price, and I don't see any reason they shouldn't.

Post by **meow** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:14 am

This is Ned’s chance to get paid. He’s, what, 27 or 28 now? Finally was given a chance to proven himself and grabbed it with both hands

Post by **JC2** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:25 am

Unfortunately, this was his chance to rebound after his chance to prove himself failed in Detroit. But he can certainly try to get as much money as he can.

Post by **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:31 am

my thing is that the Pens are a little bit in a tough spot right now roster wise so we’re gonna have to take some chances if we want to be competitive. If we can sign Ned, who I don’t think is really any worse than Jarry but will likely be a bit cheaper, then Jarry becomes expendable. Not that I would be super happy with that because I think Ned has the same injury and consistency question marks as Jarry (not saying they can’t stand healthy and consistent but just that neither of them have proven that they can be both over a long period of time) but if we can get good pieces back for Jarry then I think that’s a possible option for us to re-tool for next season

we’re kind of being shown right now that this goaltending tandem can’t buoy a deficient roster so if we can get something back for Jarry then I think it’s worth trying

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:56 am

We have been shown exactly the opposite. That competent goaltending makes all the difference and having two goalies that can get wins is enough to keep you alive.

Especially if they have game stealing upside, which guys like Jarry have, Ned a little bit...but guys like Raanta do not at this point.

Basically, we're endorsing a move to make maybe our biggest strength into our biggest weakness...

Post by **Rx6687** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:07 pm

It's a pretty darn good position to be in when you've got two very good goaltenders, plus a young guy with potential waiting in the wings. So, as I said, for next season I would keep both Jarry and Ned. Part with one only when/if Blomqvist is ready.

The trade market for goalies is such that you wouldn't get back the type of asset you need - which is a #2 center who can also play wing. You're just not going to get that guy for Jarry in this market. Let's say this is EA Sports NHL 24 for a moment, and you swap Jarry for Necas, and it transforms the top 6 into a formidable scoring threat. We all saw what happened with DeSmith last season, and how abysmal the team's record was when he started. I would not want the team to be right back in that same position again. If I were Dubas, the trade offer for Jarry would have to be astounding for me to jump on it, and it's just not going to be. It never is for goalies, it seems.

You've got two reliable vehicles, so you sell one and use the money to buy a Jacuzzi, and then you're completely boned when your only vehicle breaks down. To that, I say no thanks.

Post by **meow** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:10 pm

MalkinIsMyHomeboy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:31 am my thing is that the Pens are a little bit in a tough spot right now roster wise so we’re gonna have to take some chances if we want to be competitive. If we can sign Ned, who I don’t think is really any worse than Jarry but will likely be a bit cheaper, then Jarry becomes expendable. Not that I would be super happy with that because I think Ned has the same injury and consistency question marks as Jarry (not saying they can’t stand healthy and consistent but just that neither of them have proven that they can be both over a long period of time) but if we can get good pieces back for Jarry then I think that’s a possible option for us to re-tool for next season

we’re kind of being shown right now that this goaltending tandem can’t buoy a deficient roster so if we can get something back for Jarry then I think it’s worth trying

is this a bit?

Post by **dodint** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:29 pm

It's a vortex. Don't engage.

Post by **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:31 pm

lol not a bit. I just don't rate Jarry as highly as some of yall. which can be considered a bit out there considering mikey and meow in particular know more about goaltending than I do. But also I just have not seen that Jarry is the guy that yall think he is

I'm not saying we should 100% trade Jarry because it all depends on the return. But if another GM thinks Jarry is a Vezina contender and we can get good pieces back for him, I think it would be a good move

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:48 pm

I think some of this Jarry talk is like some of the Letang talk (outside of the last month or so, where he is playing the worst hockey of his career)...I don't think folks follow enough other teams closely.

Post by **dodint** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:48 pm

Post by **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 1:03 pm

yeah I'll be honest it's rich hearing that my takes are a vortex from dodint when he seems to think that Letang is an AHLer

Post by **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 1:16 pm

mikey wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:48 pm I think some of this Jarry talk is like some of the Letang talk (outside of the last month or so, where he is playing the worst hockey of his career)...I don't think folks follow enough other teams closely.

you're right taht I don't follow other teams closely enough to be fully informed as to where he is compared to other goalies in the league. But I have watched him in his Penguins career and can compare that to MAF and Matt Murray. In 3 playoff opportunities he's only been healthy for 1 of them and was dreadful. I know save percentage and goals against are flawed stats but even in advanced stats (which aren't everything but are a piece of the puzzle) Jarry doesn't look great (30th in Goals Saved about Expected per 60 and 29th in Save % Above Expected)

also I don't think we're as a bad of a team defensively as some of you are claiming (both by the eye test and statistically...we're 10th in 5 on 5 Corsi and 9th in expected goal differential) so Jarry's lackluster play and stats are not all excusable by the team's play

I'm not saying Jarry is definitely bad. just that I'm still unconvinced that he's "the guy" and we might get more value from him in the trade market then what he can contribute if there's another GM who thinks like mikey/meow

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 1:23 pm

Was Jarry always 29th in that? Or was his stretch of recent play that tanked him?

This was from December:

Per NHL EDGE stats, Jarry also is near the top of the NHL at his position in terms of high-danger save percentage (.832; 80th percentile) and also the number of games in which he’s had greater than a .900 save percentage (10; 96th percentile).

We are a pretty good defensive team.

Post by **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 1:32 pm

he wasn't always but his recent play is a part of who he is (to my point, I don't trust he can consistently play at a high level)

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 1:44 pm

Which is basically where goaltending is today...which I already described recently too...most of the guys that were around Jarry and Ned in January, all but Hellebuyck basically fell off...

Which means, if you have two goalies that can both play, steal games, go on runs of several starts in a row (like Ned now), and you can do it for a combined cap hit that's less than the elite starters...then that's exactly where you want to be.

Post by **meecrofilm** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 2:09 pm

"Recent play" also needs to take into account Jarry was usually the one in net when the team decided to take 3 weeks off in March.