Hockey Randomness

[King Colby]

Everything is fine

[mikey]

Hey man, people are still free to say stuff that isn't pure hate...no one is getting nickel and dimed by this stuff, it's all in your head...

Check out this pocket watch's inertia...

[Ad@m]

[JC2]

Utica...

Well, mikey... you are an odd fellow, but I must say, you steam a good ham.

[Ad@m]

Berube to the Leafs

[nocera]

Somebody should tell the Canes social media team that sometimes it’s okay to shut up and take the L.

[meow]

canes do got a point tho

[Orlando Penguin]

ESPN rolling out this 1994 Rangers documentary isn't going to do much to dispel the fact that they're always on their knees for NYC and their **** fans.

[iamjs]

Nashville is just accumulating Tampa picks.

[mikey]

Two things here:
1. Matt Duchene's buyout jumps from $2.5 mil to $5.5 mil this coming season, $6.5 mil the following. So, this eases that burden.
2. Mitch Marner

[MR25]

What would a package from Nash even look like for Marner?

Have to think it would start with Saros, since there's talk of them pushing Askarov forward and the Toronto media loves blaming the goalies. There's just not too much more there value-wise IMO. Tomasino maybe? Tyson Barrie lol?

[mikey]

It depends on how stupid GMs are...he's a big ticket on an expiring deal and the media/fans/estupidos are all railing against him right now...teams have a sense that Toronto wants to make a change, so they're probably smelling a bit of blood in the water...

I'm not very good at gauging these types of situations because there's just so many more factors in play...expiring deal, huge ticket, big market vs small, superstar caliber player but one that has taken on a negative rep maybe as our last memory of him...

I can deduce though that it's somewhere between a 4th round pick and all of those players you mentioned combined...

[King Colby]

Dallas in 5
Florida in 7

[meow]

…in 5 is my least picked outcome, but I can see the Dallas Edmonton series ending in 5. Dallas is a beefed up version of Vancouver in a lot of ways

[nocera]

Penguins great Mikael Granlund got a 1 game suspension for this crosscheck.

[King Colby]

…in 5 is my least picked outcome, but I can see the Dallas Edmonton series ending in 5. Dallas is a beefed up version of Vancouver in a lot of ways

Same but I just think Dallas has the defensive structure to contain 97 and 29 enough and Edmontons blueline doesnt come anywhere close to what Dallas saw in the first two.

Agreed they can play a similar game as Vancouver, but sub in Oettinger for Silovs (lol) and miro/harley/tanev/lindell for hughes/hronek/myers/zadorov... not particularly close there either

[iamjs]

[King Colby]

They call that the babcock

[Lelldorin]

For sport analytics nerds:

It appears that one of the largest conferences in hockey analytics (LINHAC) is connected to my university. I have appended a few pdfs if you want to read a little bit. They have tried to do something better than just corsi and expected goals.

My dropbox folder with a few pdfs
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/1globb96 ... o43kt&dl=0
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Identifying Player Roles in Ice Hockey: Clusters players from data from the 21-22 season.
Page 140 lists underpaid and overpaid players compared to close players based on the 21-22 season. Does it seem legit?
Underpaid Defenders
Oliver Kylington
Evan Bouchard
Adam Fox

Overpaid Defenders
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Esa Lindell
Ryan McDonagh

Underpaid Forwards
Trevor Zegras
Mason Marchment
Jason Robertson

Overpaid Forwards
Sean Monahan
Milan Lucic
Brady Tkachuk

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Characterizing Playing Styles for Ice Hockey Players: Categorizes players in SHL and AHL into different categories/roles.
D Brickley, F Kral and E Sjöström is categorized as similar players for example.

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Any thoughts?

[MR25]

All of those "underpaid" players were still on their ELCs at the time. You'd think the model would account for that...

[mikey]

Thanks for sharing this. I'm not sure about their clustering, I'd like to see a longer list of those players on their page 138, PDF page 142.

[Lelldorin]

Nice that some of you found in interesting:) I spoke with the research leader for the hockey analytics at my university and he admitted that moat underpaid players had ELCs and most overpaid were in their last years of long contracts.

He has done the research in his spare time but has finally received money for a PhD student to continue the work.

I can try to see if I can get the larger dataset for the table, mikey.

He said I could get tickets for the conference in two weeks time, but I am not sure whether I can attend. Katherine Wu from Pens is one of the speakers.

Here is the program and it is possible to access draft versions of the research papers.
https://www.ida.liu.se/research/sportsa ... ogram.html

Edit: They have tried to take importance of goals into account as well in later research with the hypothesis that a goal in a 1-1 game is more important than in a 6-0.

They have also investigating the importance of special teams and came to the conclusion that it is not so important. Unless you are really bad So it is kind of similar to s*x

[mikey]

The important goals thing is something I've dabbled with for skaters and for goalies...

Once I pick Python back up again, I'll probably be able to make some in-roads on that...

I'm skeptical of the "not so important" thing...not because I'm good at sex by any means, but sometimes these numbers-led folks draw conclusions about something because they don't find it predictable...secondary assists became a target. But because they don't take into account (usually) player types and team tactics, they throw it all out as "noise"...but that's not where you want to be.

The reality is: it's X times easier to score on the power play, you get 3 power play opportunities per game, it takes 4 goals to win a game...it's important. As we're painfully aware haha

[JC2]

If you get to attend, please ask Katherine what data she used or provided that indicated Ryan Graves was worth signing.

[Gaucho]

Waddell out in Carolina.